A Clarion Call For Planning, Not Trading!
Today, as you most likely already heard, the DOW Jones Industrial Average closed up over 13,000, at 13,005.12 to be exact; the first time we’ve reached that level since May, 2008.
The logical question is, if this milestone made the news, how does that information impact my portfolio, and what action should I take, if any?
Well, to answer the first question, to the extent of your US Large stock holdings, your account value has gone up marginally from yesterday to today’s close, and would now be valued at slightly higher than it was in early 2008.
To answer the second question, no trading should be precipitated because of this news. As a matter of fact, market prices go up and market prices go down; they generally follow cycles that ebb and flow. Some pundits are stating that the market prices will surely pull back from here; suggesting taking measures to “lock” in their gains, however meager, right now. Yet if their gains have shown up mostly since the first of 2012, investors would be selling their holdings prior to having held the stocks or stock mutual funds for a year and a day, and thus be subject to short-term capital gains rates, which mirror your individual income tax bracket, whereas gains on assets that have been held for at least a year and a day are still taxed at a maximum federal 15% bracket—a real steal!
We must resist the press’ encouragement and urging to “act” based upon today’s (or any) day’s news, just as we would restrain ourselves from taking drastic action if our child brought home either an A or a D on a daily quiz. We may well ask the child what happened that resulted in either grade, yet we would most likely frame that single grade amidst several other quiz grades, and form an opinion as to whether the goal (in this case, our child’s education) is progressing in a satisfactory manner, or not.
Investing, like learning, is a task for several weeks, months and years. A day’s price does not an investment make! So, fair warning: just about the time our emotions get heightened the next time we hear, or read about stock market activity, I urge us to separate our emotions from our intellect. We will allow our emotions to question and react, and then we will harken back to our overall financial plan, which most likely entails purchasing investments—either with lump sums of money, or spread out over successive months; through a process called Dollar Cost Averaging.
Dollar Cost Averaging it the fancy term for splitting one’s lump sum into equal monthly installments that will be invested, perhaps at the end of each upcoming month, over a period of 6-12 months, generally. So, if we have 24,000 to invest, we might spread that investment over, let’s say, 6 months. Here’s how that math works: we divide 24,000 by 6, and the answer is $4,000. We would invest $4,000 at the end of February—tomorrow, and then invest another $4,000 at the end of March, and then another $4,000 at the end of April, and then May, June and finally July. Yet, because we do not have a crystal ball, we cannot tell if the price of these investments will be higher or lower than today’s value, so one strategy to mitigate that price risk, involves making systematic monthly purchases through Dollar Cost Averaging, that overall, have proven to be more effective than attempting to select one particular day in which to invest our lump sum.
This process has worked very well for investors, and it is the exact model that most 401(k) retirement plans, and most 403(b) pension plans utilize by allowing the employee to select an amount that they want to invest, such that the employer simply takes that amount right off the top of each month’s—or pay period’s check—and invests that money directly into the retirement plan sub-accounts. This automatic investing often compounds into a respectable sum in even a few years.
Actually, we really want the price of our investments to drop while we are investing, as when that happens, we are able to purchase more units of the investment. Here’s an example of us investing $200 per month, each and every month. Let’s keep the math simple now, by make believing we’ll be investing only into one sub-account, whose price today was $5.00 per share. So, we divide $200 by $5.00 and we get 40 units for our investment today. If the market price of that sub-account goes up to let’s say even 5.50 per share next month, we’ll only be able to purchase $200 divided by $5.50, which is 36.3636 units. “Yes, but the units are worth less than yesterday, you retort!” My reply is that your focus needs to be on accumulating as many UNITS as possible, rather than concerning yourself with the actual price of that particular sub-account. Upon your retirement, or whenever you choose to begin withdrawing sums of money, we’ll decide which particular units we wish to cash in first, as by then, you will have amassed probably 4 -8 different subaccounts.
Summarizing then, IF you do not have a strategy for investing now, IF you do not know whether you should be in the market or not, then the first step is to review your short term and medium term goals against the monies you have stashed wherever, and determine if you are poised to meet your goals. If not, may I suggest that you begin to invest, systematically into the markets, and especially the stock markets for any amounts that you are expecting to grow at a rate that would (as least historically speaking) perform at a higher rate than the cost of living (inflation).
Let’s develop or hone our plans for investing and be diligent about sticking to our plan, rather than being “whipped by the wind” of individual days’ price swings. I suspect we are in for yet MORE price volatility, so make your plan, work your plan, and once a year review your plan, preferably with a fee-only Certified Financial Planner, who can ensure you are effectively diversified, in order to meet your goals.
As Margaret Thatcher’s advisors admonished her in the movie, Iron Lady, “if you want to change ….. lead! God Speed to you, as you lead your investing with a well-thought out plan, and then you follow that very plan, period.
It’s Not Too Late To Learn About Money!
No matter how old you are, it’s never too late to learn a new thing or two. Money and investing are no different. You may have lost some upswings, but you will also have missed the downward plunges. It’s never too late! Our happiness is far too precious NOT to make the time for this educational and profitable money tour. Today, I wanted to share some folks who came into their own greatness later in life, by way of inspiration.
- Mary Somerville: Scottish scientist and feminist, who published her last book published at age 89
- Evangeline Booth: first female International Salvation Army Chief at 69
- Margaret Mead: was still working and publishing in her 70′s
- Julia Flikke: first female US Army Colonel at 64
- Vaira Vike-Freiberga: Latvia’s first woman president at 61
- Marlene Baldwin: former prostitute and brothel madam who later ran a successful direct-mail advertising company from home, at 64 named CA’s Businessman of the Year (2004) by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
- Muriel Siebert – First woman to hold a seat on NY Stock Exchange. (I was privileged to chat with Muriel and was awed by her tenacity.)
And that’s just the first 7 that come to mind!
Small steps, taken one at a time, a journey makes. We can master the money mindset. Then, we can move on to how money works and lastly, how money can work for you. It’s not impossible, it’s just a question of breaking things down into manageable steps. Just like recovering from major surgery, losing weight and, frankly if you’ve had the misfortune to live this, grappling with grief.
We can do it, Women! Rosie Riveter wasn’t alone, and you aren’t either!
Excerpt from the upcoming book, “Financial Fitness For Women”, due out this summer.
Managing Risk – Part 1
How you’re managing risk determines the success of your investing strategy overall. It’s a complicated topic, but not a scary one. As is evidenced, by the straightforward path we took on with this week’s podcast.
We posted some deeper descriptions on benchmarks in a recent blog post.
Benchmarks – What Is A Benchmark And Where Does It Come From?
On Women and Money last week, we frequently mentioned “the benchmark”, asset managers who didn’t beat the benchmark, stocks that are measured against an index or benchmark…and ultimately, we promised to define what a benchmark was.
A benchmark, as it pertains to investing, is a standard used for comparison in order to gauge performance of a stock, bond, or mutual fund.
Which benchmark is used is determined by what is an appropriate measure for the stock, bond, or mutual fund. For instance, if a mutual fund invested primarily in large, US corporations listed on the New York Stock Exchange, then the Dow Jones Industrial Average could be an appropriate benchmark for comparison.
If this mutual fund then returned 10% in a certain period of time, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 5% in the same period of time, then the mutual fund is said to “outperform its benchmark.” Whether you’re investing for beginners or a seasoned pro, you need a comparison or a benchmark to compare your results against. Wall Streeters have long been accused of picking a benchmark that suits a particular performance, rather than always going up against the most common, and best known indexes.
There are lots of indexes, all of which produce a benchmark/average/index. Here is a partial List Of Financial Market Indexes, an excerpt from Ms Morrison’s Dictionary of Useful Financial Investment Terms
- Dow Jones Industrial Average – Although Charles Dow compiled the 30 stock index to gauge the performance of the industrial sector within the US economy, the index’s performance continues to be influenced by not only corporate and economic reports, but also by domestic and foreign political events. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Its price-weighted average compensates for stock splits and other adjustments.
- S & P 500 Index – The S&P 500® has been widely regarded as the best single gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market since the index was first published in 1957. The index includes 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, capturing 75% coverage of U.S. equities. The S&P 500 is a market value weighted index – each stock’s weight is proportionate to its market value.
- S & P Mid-Cap 400 Index – This Standard & Poor’s index serves as a barometer for the U.S. mid-cap equities sector and is the most widely followed mid-cap index in existence. To be included in the index, a stock must have a total market capitalization that ranges from roughly $750 million to $3 billion dollars. S&P 400 MidCap Index is a value-weighted index, meaning that the stocks with the largest market capitalization have the most significant impact on the movement of the index. Similarly, smaller movements in the smallest companies in the index have virtually no effect on the overall movement of the index.
- NASDAQ Composite – The Nasdaq Composite is comprised of over 3,000 common stocks, limited partnerships, ADRs, of both US and non-US companies. It’s followed as an indicator of the technology and growth company stocks’ performance.
- Russell 1000 Growth – The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
- Russell 1000 Value – The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values.
- Russell 1000 Index – The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index and includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 represents approximately 92% of the Russell 3000 Index
- Russell 2000 Growth – The Russell 2000 Growth Index measures the performance of the small-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
- Russell 2000 Value – The Russell 2000 Value Index measures the performance of small-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
- Russell 2000 Index – The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.
- Russell 3000 Growth – The Russell 3000 Growth Index measures the performance of the broad growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 3000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
- Russell 3000 Index – The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.
- Russell MidCap Growth Index – The Russell Midcap Growth Index measures the performance of the mid-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell Midcap Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
- Russell MidCap Value Index – The Russell Midcap Value Index measures the performance of the mid-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell Midcap Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
- Russell MidCap Index – The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell Midcap Index is a subset of the Russell 1000® Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell Midcap Index represents approximately 27% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 companies.
- Wilshire 5000 – Once 5000 stocks, this index now comprises over 6,700 stocks of publicly traded companies that are US headquartered, actively traded on the American Stock Exchange and are readily priced to the public. It’s a market capitalization-weighted index, which overweights higher firm value companies, and underweights those with a lower firm value.
- Wilshire REIT Index – A market-weighted index of real estate partnerships, Real Estate Operating Companies, otherwise known as REOCs, and publicly traded real estate trusts, otherwise known as REITs.
- EAFE – Europe, Australia & Far East Index, is an unmanaged market-value weighted index that measures the condition of overseas stock markets. Countries represented in the EAFE include France, Germany, UK, Japan and Hong Kong.
- MSCI World Index – An index consisting of a wide selection of stocks traded in 23 developed countries. It is market capitalized weighted and is considered an important benchmark of the state of global stock markets
- MSCI Europe – An index consisting of a wide selection of stocks traded in 23 developed countries- Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. It is market capitalization weighted and is considered an important benchmark of the state of global stock markets.
- MSCI Emerging Markets – a market capitalized idex that measures the stock market returns of 21 emerging countries– Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey
- Lehman Aggregate Bond Index – the best total market bond index used by more than 90% of all US investors, which includes government, mortgage-backed, asset-backed and corporate securities to simulate the entire universe of bonds whose maturities are over 1 year.
- Lehman Government Bond Index – This index tracks most all of the US Treasury Bonds and US Government Agency bonds in the US, including the 1-3 Year Government Index as well as the 20 plus year Treasury Index.
Russell 3000 Value - The Russell 3000 Value Index measures the performance of the broad value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 3000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
What Kind Of Investor D’You Wanna Be?
It was a question I asked a new customer this week, “What kind of investor d’you wanna be?”, and our conversation sparked inspiration for this podcast.
Obviously, we women want to be WISEinvestors (a recurring theme here on my blog and website), yet it’s all about balance. I often speak of a pants pocket analogy when explaining balance, as you’ll hear on this podcast. I also mention and define various risks and warn about the inevitability of losing money while on the road to gaining it. It’s what investments do – their prices gyrate up and down, yet over the long haul, most (not all) make money. People’s “mistakes” or perceived mistakes vary, yet most aren’t so critical they can’t be fixed. It’s how you plan first for the proper “mix” between stocks and bonds (dependent upon your goals) and then systematically re-balance your portfolio that position you to be a BIG winner in the end.How to make money in life is a blend of earned and unearned income and on the latter, we have a choice between active and passive investing. You’ll hear my formula for success, and my firmly held beliefs on the value of passive investing over active investing, based upon years of research.
Enjoy!
